A decade following the UK entered into a hurried referendum that divided the country and caused chaos, a advisory comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and citizens drifted into Brexit and the same might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering upheavals for which nobody is ready.
That is the message from two respected commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a potentially fraught and seismic referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gain traction very quickly," the commentator stated. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our region remains very unstable."
Book Publication Aims to Stir Debate
The pair have studied the governmental, financial and cultural reasons for any governmental shift in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the issue with a series of lectures that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts all parties, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extraordinarily polarised community where the losing side are unable to accept defeat and the victorious side are uncertain exactly what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim this point is approaching, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there will be a national vote.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has hidden the shortage of substantive discussion, noted McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the idea but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A lot has gone on in academia but hardly any elected officials or activists want to engage with even the fundamentals. For instance, what sort of state should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, no writer supports unity or the current situation. Each composes two articles that seek objectivity in laying out the rationale for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, gathering economic and social data, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Arguments range over identity markers, duties, health services, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of unionist unrest. The goal is to educate and stimulate discussion.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there has not yet occurred a debate," commented the writer. "Discussion implies an acknowledgement of the concept that there may exist valid points on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where the electorate say they favour unity but reject greater financial contributions or implementing a new flag to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British identity.
"The Irish government must establish what the proposal from pro-unification movements is aside from just saying: 'We seek a united Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride believes a national vote in his era is possible and that it could happen unexpectedly. "There might be just a reckless or a bad or a negligent government minister who states: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, valid perspectives, he stated. "One side will win in this matter and the other side will eventually lose but all factions has has something to acquire from the opposing positions."
Appeal for Wider Dialogue
Westminster must join the discussion, said the analyst. "This concerns your state. It is a British question equally as it is an Irish question."
